Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 105.044956 119.776566 136.261955 156.156735 179.620225 206.539815 239.944886
2026-02-01 82.967614 101.104013 123.094292 151.992716 189.372725 236.647960 301.856224
2026-02-08 69.158727 88.480450 113.343054 148.201379 196.655522 262.909984 362.642827
2026-02-15 59.658309 79.310680 105.823673 144.999622 202.797033 287.220418 424.324957
2026-02-22 55.910572 77.029781 106.814842 153.086342 225.417336 338.212799 536.074420
2026-03-01 51.145256 72.548497 103.856643 154.571414 237.836269 375.237199 633.272497
2026-03-08 47.340987 68.925475 101.553588 156.460556 250.794604 414.963834 744.141392
2026-03-15 43.715948 65.115647 98.413637 156.382457 260.138993 449.718772 853.842012
2026-03-22 42.238597 64.449685 100.089106 164.439723 284.869440 517.090788 1047.522300
2026-03-29 40.651205 63.405152 100.959203 171.099741 307.977530 585.834869 1264.724432
2026-04-05 39.020254 62.100414 101.196116 176.554887 329.541639 655.771148 1507.121937
2026-04-12 36.881587 59.718296 99.276397 177.642612 342.349352 709.306891 1725.964826
2026-04-19 34.622568 57.007924 96.639419 177.294601 352.759575 761.333863 1964.967529
2026-04-26 32.094649 53.609481 92.421099 173.273598 354.557095 793.524295 2160.360896
2026-05-03 29.809266 50.457946 88.361949 169.067653 355.250814 823.242683 2360.997300
2026-05-10 27.822562 47.690483 84.769520 165.383864 356.530987 854.806878 2581.670929
2026-05-17 27.493340 47.980682 87.134908 174.872746 391.430920 987.235726 3225.487480
2026-05-24 26.353820 46.629100 86.092322 176.619165 407.202021 1069.393769 3725.620981
2026-05-31 25.350682 45.459198 85.302968 178.836327 424.644333 1161.711241 4324.357705
2026-06-07 24.210471 43.930214 83.625597 178.745146 435.843469 1237.644485 4899.990875
2026-06-14 23.983011 44.206417 85.783311 188.204343 475.809818 1422.627900 6145.868645
2026-06-21 23.606780 44.145927 87.202352 196.034244 512.825528 1611.126138 7585.584139
2026-06-28 23.126791 43.830235 88.023560 202.454884 547.067600 1802.726445 9241.963424